Friday, 11 January 2013

The tourism industry will take Greece out of recession

It seems that significant progress has been made in Greece that last 12 months.

With the Greek economy having reached the bottom of the recession circle, some bright examples that things have change are coming back on the national press.

For example the UK's biggest hotel price comparison website has been rumored to be focusing on Greece in 2013 as reports are pointing out that Greece will be the top destination for holiday makers in Europe in 2013. finds you the best deals on hotels around the world by searching all of the leading hotel booking websites for you, potentially saving you as much as 70%.

Greece has been voted the top holiday destination by the Austrian public. The Travel insider report also says that Ryanair has also choose Greece and more specifically Chania in Crete to open its 1st Greek base (Ryanair 55th base in total) at Chania in April 2013 with one based aircraft and unveiled 10 new routes (26 in total), to/from Billund, Bremen, Bristol, Eindhoven, Katowice, Memmingen, Thessaloniki, Venice, Vilnius and Warsaw, as Ryanair invests over $70m at Chania Airport.

Ryanair celebrated its new Chania base by launching a 100,000 seat sale with fares starting from £8 for travel across its European network in January which are available for booking until midnight (24:00hrs) Thur (20 Dec). Ryanair's 10 new Chania routes will begin in April and will go on sale on soon.

Wednesday, 8 February 2012

Chaos in Greece: One step away from selective default

Live from Athens

Chaotic discussions are taking place right now in Greece between the Greek government and the IMF officials trying to agree on the new austerity measures in order to avoid a catastrophic default.

According to Standard & Poors Greece will likely not achieve sustainable debt levels with a seventy percent reduction in the value of bonds held by its private creditors. So the ECB in conjunction with the IMF are putting pressure on the Greek government for the public sector to take further losses.

Private-sector bond holders currently account for only a small part of Greece’s creditors since most of the country’s debt has migrated to the hands of the European Central Bank and other official institutions

The S&P analyst Frank Gill said in a video conference this afternoon.

“In our original estimate, which was made two years ago, at that time debt-to-GDP would have been restored to a far more sustainable level,” Gill said.

“But because only a small subcomponent of investors are actually taking the haircut and the official sector is not, or only partially, then the reduction… is probably not sufficient debt relief to make debt sustainable given the outlook for GDP itself.”

S&P, which currently rates Greece at CC with a negative outlook, said it intends to downgrade the country to “selective default,” but just temporarily, while the government concludes its debt swap.

Shortly after that, Greece’s ratings should be upgraded to a “still low level,” which will depend on whether the country’s public debt is reduced to a sustainable position, Gill said.

The Greek political party leaders have been in long discussions trying rescue the Greek economy and avoid a selective default which will be catastrophic for the country. Chaos will be on the Greek streets again similar to the riots that we saw on the streets of Athens last night.

Most of the European broadcasting media have sent journalists into the streets of Athens to cover live 24/7 the discussions in the Greek parliament which has to lead to a positive vote before Sunday night in order to avoid a selective default.

Two euro zone monetary policy sources said today that European Central Bank advisers are still divided on what contribution the ECB could make to a restructuring of Greece’s sovereign debt.

Saturday, 28 January 2012

Trading Gold the other way...

A lot of people have asked me in the past, what is best to trade with, currencies or commodities? 

I have been trading Gold XAU/USD for at least five years now, with above average performance compared with Forex currency trading.

I caught the rally from the $1.500 up to $1.900 and also some side way moves between those levels. For me it has been a more profitable business than trading currencies or stocks and shares.

However, some clever cookies have been dealing in Gold with much more profitable results than myself and majority of the traders.

Have a look on the photos bellow....


These photos are from Iraq, have been taken by US marines and it clearly shows them to transport and handle the Iraqi Gold. The 21st century cold rush....

Now you know how has been more profitable on trading Gold you and me or them?? Now we all know why the US went to Iraq.

Friday, 20 January 2012

What will happen when Greece Dukascopy TV

Good analysis on Dukascopy TV about the forthcoming Greek default.

I just read a very interesting article about the will happen when Greece defaults. It seems to me that what was unthinkable a year ago. What no one wanted to talk about either in Greece on in Europe was the possibility of a Greek default and the repercussions of such a credit even in Europe.

Unfortunately what no one wanted to talk about, now it is widely discussed among the Greeks and the European officials who have been stationed in Athens the last 16 months.

There are more and more articles on the Greek and European press. Over the internet articles and blogs have appeared giving analysis and advice to what to do and how to prepare yourself on such event.

I have posted the link bellow and you will have to make up your mind of what will happen when Greece defaults.

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

If only Pericles knew.... Acropolis 447 BC to 2012 AD

It has been really cold today the outside temperature is straggling to get above 6C. I have spent most of the morning by the fireplace sipping my coffee and reading the news on-line trying to figure out how thing will be six to twelve months down the line for my beloved Greece.

I have a love and hate, kind of relationship with this country, I have loved it more than any other country in the world and at the same time have hated for been so typically Greek!!

I have spent long time of my life in Western Europe, studying, working, living the high life of a developed and civilised society. I lived in six different countries so far and three different continents. I can probably say that I have lived, seen and experience things above the average man in my time. 

Despite that I am puzzled and somehow confused with the contradictions of our times. I actually remember reading a very interesting book about the contradictions of our times when was at university long, long time ago. It was written by Charles Handy and it was called "The Empty Raincoat: Making Sense of the Future"

The same kind of contradictions that are described in the book are also very obvious in our society today. For example Germany is currently having the lowest unemployment since the reunification of the East and West Germany in 1990 6,8%. At the same time Spain's unemployment is officially around 23%,  unofficially is above 30%. Greece officially 19% unofficially 25%, Portugal and Italy close behind Greece.

There are talks on the Greek press today that Greece will be renting out the Parthenon in Acropolis to media companies for shooting TV commercials and filming movies in exchange of a healthy fee to the Greek Ministry of Culture. 

Acropolis is not for sale but it is available for rent.....

 .....if only Pericles knew.

Things must be getting tougher in my beloved Greece. According t0 the Managing Director of Fitch Ratings Edward Parker the count down has already started, brace yourselves Greece is insolvent and it will default on its debt by 20th of March 2012. (Full article is provided bellow). 

Greece Is Insolvent, Will Default on Its Debt, Fitch Says

Greece is insolvent and probably won’t be able to honor a bond payment in March as the country negotiates with creditors to cut its debt burden, Fitch Ratings Managing Director Edward Parker said.

The euro area’s most indebted country is unlikely to be able to honor a March 20 bond payment of 14.5 billion euros ($18 billion), Parker said today in an interview in Stockholm. Efforts to arrange a private sector deal on how to handle Greece’s obligations would constitute a default, he said.

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is scheduled to meet tomorrow with a group representing private bondholders after a five-day break to hold talks on forgiving at least 50 percent of the nation’s debt in the euro area’s first sovereign restructuring. Greece’s official creditors begin talks Jan. 20 on spending curbs and budget cuts that will determine whether to disburse additional aid.

“The so-called private sector involvement, for us, would count as a default, it clearly is a default in our book,” Parker said. “So it won’t be a surprise when the Greek default actually happens and we expect it one way or the other to be relatively soon.”

‘Restricted Default’

Fitch in July downgraded Greece to CCC, seven levels below investment grade. The rating company in July also said Greece will be considered a “restricted default” after a European bailout plan was unveiled that included getting bondholders to assume part of the cost.
The yield on Greek benchmark debt maturing in October 2022 fell 45 basis points to 33.6 percent, after hitting a record of 36.14 percent on Dec. 21.

The proposed debt swap aims to slice 100 billion euros from the 205 billion euros of privately owned Greek debt, with the help of 30 billion euros in cash for incentives to reach a debt- to-gross domestic product ratio of 120 percent by the end of 2020. That will relieve Greece of some 4 billion euros in annual debt servicing costs. The ratio was 162 percent in 2011, according to IMF estimates.

The targeted ratio is a “realistic outcome” for the talks, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said yesterday at the European Parliament in Strasbourg. Slower growth and a lack of progress on reforms since the Oct. 26 summit make it essential that the talks address how Greece will meet its debt obligations, Draghi said.

Debt Ratio Rising

The “government debt-to-GDP ratio is 160 percent and rising so it can’t pay its debts,” Parker said. “Plan A is for the PSI negotiations to resume and reach a voluntary agreement and if that isn’t possible, I would expect an involuntary debt exchange to be set up and for them to complete that by that date in March.”

Two days of talks in Athens between Greece and the Institute of International Finance, which represents the country’s private creditors, broke off on Jan. 13 without an agreement. Frank Vogl, an IIF spokesman, blamed the breakdown in talks on disagreement over the coupon, or interest rate, to be paid on new bonds and on discord among different authorities involved in the talks.

The country is surviving on the 8 billion-euro loan paid last month by the IMF and the EU, and proceeds from Treasury bill sales. Greece raised 1.6 billion euros in a sale of 13-week bills today at a yield of 4.64 percent, compared with 4.68 percent at the previous such sale on Dec. 20.

Europe’s debt crisis is likely to be “long and drawn out,” Parker said. “There is simply not enough political will to jump to some fiscal union, in the sense of joint and several guaranteeing of euro zone government debt.”